Slava Ukraini

Saturday, October 25, 2025

If Russia keeps it's trend of decline, how fast will Russia likely decline over the next 25 years? Scenarios and probabilities.

Please read:

If Russia keeps it's trend of decline, how fast will Russia likely decline over the next 25 years? Give me scenarios and probabilities., Grok

If Russia keeps it's trend of decline, how fast will Russia likely decline over the next 25 years? Give me scenarios and probabilities., ChatGPT

Russia stopped publicly publishing its demography data

Please read: Russia's Demographic Vanishing Act: A Warning From History

Russia's retreat into demographic secrecy represents more than statistical manipulation—it's a symptom of an unlikey, but not impossible, state failure. By erasing its people from official view, Moscow is courting the very instability it seeks to avoid. As I've argued throughout my career studying political demography, population changes are among the most powerful forces shaping international and domestic politics. Russia's attempt to hide these changes doesn't make them disappear; it only ensures that when the demographic reckoning comes, it will be swift, severe, and destabilizing.

Probability that Hyper Russophilia-Putinism Will Be "Stone Cold Dead" in the USA within 5 Years

Even before Trump put the tough sanctions on Russia in October 2025, only 10% of MAGA Republicans had favorable views on Vladimir Putin in July of 2025 (See: American's view's on Vladimir Putin)

Now that Donald Trump has put tough sanctions on Russia, I suspect a much smaller percentage of MAGA Republicans view Vladimir Putin favorably.

Question: "What is the probability that hyper Russophilia-Putinism will be "stone cold dead" in the USA within 5 years?"

Estimated probability: 95%. It will be politically inert ("stone cold dead") by 2030, surviving only in irrelevant online echo chambers or historical footnotes, akin to 1970s Stalin apologists.